Honeywell has published its 33rd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which provides insights into current industry trends as well as longer-cycle developments, and is informed by extensive surveys of business aviation operators across the globe.

Based on survey results, Honeywell forecasts up to 8,500 new business jets worth $280 billion will be delivered over the next decade, an increase in value from last year’s forecast. However, the five-year new jet purchase plans of business aviation operators surveyed remained on par with last year’s results, indicating that demand for new aircraft is stabilising well above pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the survey reveals ongoing plans by business jet manufacturers to ramp up production in response to strong backlogs and stable book-to-bill ratios persisting through 2024.

“The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of healthy growth, and we don't see that positive trend changing any time soon,” says Heath Patrick, president, Americas aftermarket. “Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result, manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite a mixed macroeconomic environment and challenging geopolitical circumstances, operators are optimistic about their flight activity increasing in 2025 and beyond.”

Key findings of the report include:

- New business jet deliveries in 2025 are expected to be 12 per cent higher than in 2024. Expenditures are expected to be 11 per cent higher.

- Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are comparable with last year’s survey and equivalent to 18 per cent of the current fleet. Fleet additions are consistent with results from a year ago at three per cent of the fleet, which is in line with historical industry performance.

- More than 90 per cent of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2025 than in 2024.

- Large jets are expected to account for about two thirds of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years, consistent with last year’s results.

- 82 per cent of respondents consider ‘performance’ among their top three most important criteria when purchasing their next aircraft. ‘Cost’ was second at 60 per cent.

Following an influx of first-time business aviation users into the industry throughout the COVID pandemic, combined with record levels of flight activity, the industry has begun to return to a more stable growth environment at new elevated levels of production and flight activity. Demand remains robust for new aircraft as business jet manufacturer backlogs stay strong and production volumes ramp up to accommodate that higher demand.

Based on the findings of this year’s survey, several key industry trends to watch include:

- New aircraft models introduced in recent years have driven increased demand for new aircraft, a trend which survey results indicate will continue throughout this decade and into the early 2030s.

- Flight activity is expected to increase in 2025 relative to 2024, especially for those who currently operate at high utilisation levels. The reduction in barriers to access business aviation in recent years, driven by the introduction of new shared access models, has enabled a persistent flow of new customers opting for business aviation alternatives for their travel needs.

- Fractional operators may be the largest beneficiaries of new customer growth, and they are also benefitting from traditional operators wanting to supplement their current operations with fractional shares. The business aviation industry has experienced changing dynamics in recent years, resulting in new higher levels of aircraft deliveries and flight activity than seen in the previous decade, and the sector appears poised to achieve stable growth on top of this over the next decade.

Broken down by region, North America sees the strongest demand but Latin America is showing optimism.

- North America will see 66 per cent of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is consistent with historical demand for the region. 30 per cent of respondents from North America expect to fly more next year, amounting to a large proportion of the demand, which is likely contributing to the sustained growth of new jet deliveries.

- European operators will comprise 13 per cent of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is one percentage point below last year‘s share and follows a similar trend over the past few years. A strong regional focus on sustainability, environmental pressures and the availability of alternative transit options are the likely cause of this slight dip in new aircraft demand.

- Operators in Latin America will account for 10 per cent of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is an increase of five percentage points from their share in 2023. In contrast to last year, respondents in Latin America are optimistic about favourable macroeconomic conditions, which will likely drive increased flight activity as well as demand for new jets. This effect is particularly strong in Brazil where year-over-year flight activity growth is stronger than the global average.

- Operators in Asia Pacific will make up seven per cent of the five-year new jet deliveries. APAC is returning to typical fleet growth after several years of decline throughout the pandemic. There is a notable uptick in flight activity in Australia, where departures are up nearly double digits year-over-year.

- Fleet growth in the Middle East/Africa accounts for three per cent of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is a decline of three percentage points from last year’s surveyed expectations. Flight activity in the region declined year-over-year through the first half of 2024, likely due to conflicts in the region.

The market for pre-owned aircraft is cooling after record low inventory levels in 2021 and 2022, but used aircraft values remain strong relative to the previous decade. While pre-owned aircraft inventory will likely continue to increase slowly, prices should remain stable, thereby supporting steady demand for pre-owned aircraft. Operators mentioned expecting to rely on pre-owned aircraft purchases to expand their fleets slightly more than in prior years.

In light of Honeywell’s commitment to driving aviation sustainability and reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 in its operations and facilities, this year’s survey, for the fourth consecutive year, features an analysis of sustainability in business aviation and also examines how operators are trying to lower their carbon footprint. Key findings include:

-European operators show the most proactive behaviour in lowering their carbon footprint, with North American operators lagging slightly behind. However, the total number of operators taking proactive steps in North America is still greater than any other region given the much larger volume of business aviation operations in the region.

- According to those surveyed, the acquisition of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft is considered to be the most effective method to reduce environmental impact, with 85 per cent of respondents mentioning this to be ‘very effective’ or ‘moderately effective’.

However, this method is only being utilised by 60 per cent of operators who report proactively taking steps to minimise their carbon footprint. These proactive operators also outline the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as another key method for improving their environmental impact, with 55 per cent of this group mentioning its use in their operations. 75 per cent of operators rank cost as one of the top three obstacles to adopting SAF into their operations, followed by its availability at 64 per cent.

Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell, in partnership with Seefeld Marketing International and Ad Hoc Recherche, also conducted surveys of business aviation operators comprising 375 non-fractional operators representing a fleet of 1,488 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns and provides considerable intelligence on product development needs and opportunities.