Aviation consultancy Altea team member Jean Sémiramoth shares his personal retrospective on the business aircraft market in 2021, a year that saw unprecedented demand for pre-owned aircraft, and hints at what to expect in 2022.

“If we consider pre-owned aircraft, the numbers speak for themselves,” he says. “In early January 2021 there were approximately 1,700 pre-owned business jets and 960 pre-owned turboprop aircraft for sale on the open market. Less than 12 months later these numbers have shrunk to less than 920 and 640 respectively, hitting new historical low levels.”

The company believes it is clearly a seller's market, and does not anticipate any change until the second half of 2022. And then there is the uptick in prices. “What a major paradigm shift in less than a year,” he adds. “List prices across the board are now back to, and in some cases above, their pre-pandemic levels.”

Turning to new business aircraft, Sémiramoth points to a vibrant market with OEMs revealing new long-range models and greater comfort: “Bombardier may have dreamt it, but Gulfstream has made it. Whilst Bombardier reportedly continues to study the development of the 8,000 nm range Global 8000 and needs a clean-sheet design to replace the 4,000 nm range Challenger 650, Gulfstream stole the show last October with the unveiling of the 8,000 nm range G800 and the launch of the 4,200 nm range G400.”

By 2025, over the course of just seven years, Gulfstream will have certified and put into service no less than five new models: the G500, G600, G700, G800 and G400. Dassault's launch of the 7,500 nm range Falcon 10X was maybe a bit less spectacular than Gulfstream's unveiling of the G800, but the Falcon 10X is certainly no less impressive. Sémiramoth continues: “The Falcon 10X simply aims at redefining standards in the ultra-long range business jet arena with the widest cabin in the segment and a myriad of innovative features such as an auto-recovery mode, a smart throttle as the primary power control, dual head-up displays certified as primary flight displays and pilot seats with full-recline capability to enable single-pilot operation in cruise. Meanwhile, the Beechcraft Denali, the Falcon 6X and the ACJ TwoTwenty all made their first flights in 2021, paving the way for their entry into service between 2022 and 2023.”

But are the light to super mid-size jets the next aircraft types to watch? Bombardier unveiled the Challenger 3500, a revamp of the Challenger 350, while Textron introduced upgrades to the Citation M2, XLS+ and CJ4 ,dubbed the M2 Gen2, XLS Gen2 and CJ4 Gen2. But who will trigger first with the launch of an original design in either of these categories? Surprisingly, Sémiramoth believes the first move may come from HondaJet, which unveiled its concept for a transcontinental light jet, the HondaJet 2600. Textron may also surprise the industry with something entirely new in the near future.

Bombardier is unlikely to announce an entirely new platform in these categories as it continues its efforts to de-leverage its balance sheet. And Embraer may simply have another priority with the much awaited launch of a new large regional turboprop aircraft, expected before the end of 2022.