A recent forecast predicts pre-owned transaction volume and value will recover to steady growth during the five-year period, in spite of the challenges this year, reaching 2,271 transactions worth $11.1 billion annually by 2024.

Transaction specialist Jetcraft has produced the forecast including, for the first time, trends from the company's own past transactional data and customer insights.

Jahid Fazal-Karim, owner and chairman, says: “COVID-19 has affected many industries, including our own. However, business aviation has started to recover, and the reduction in commercial flight activity provides a real opportunity for the sector to further expand its customer base and secure long-term prosperity. For this year's forecast, we've decided to focus our predictions solely on the pre-owned market, a particular area of strength for Jetcraft and one that isn't often included in other industry reports. Our forecast shows business aviation has begun to stabilise from the effect of the pandemic, and we expect to see 10,183 pre-owned transactions worth $48.8 billion in value over the next five years.”

Jetcraft's forecast highlights trends in international trade activity that bode well for industry growth. Despite temporarily reduced activity in 2020, the World Trade Organization projects trade volume will rebound in 2021. Another key driver in business aviation transactions is the increase in the number of ultra-high net worth individuals, which is set to grow by five per cent per annum until 2024.

Fazal-Karim continues: “Our previous forecasts predicted a downturn. Although it has taken place sooner than we thought, we were prepared and, as a result, are in a stronger position than in 2008. We have seen our industry quickly regain momentum and I'm confident in its recovery, particularly with more first-time buyers realising the value of business aviation, and the addition of new platforms, which continue to improve accessibility.”

Drawing upon nearly 60 years of industry knowledge, this is the first year that Jetcraft's market forecast is incorporating past transactional data and customer insights, delivering a unique look at buyer behaviour.

Fazal-Karim concludes: “We are forecasting a continued increase in large jet transactions, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. Our Jetcraft transactional data shows large jets representing a strong share of purchases by younger buyers, and that high net worth buyer types, as compared to corporate or government buyer types, are more likely to invest in this aircraft segment. These trends truly demonstrate the potential of the large jet category, which remains poised for long-term growth. Predicting the future is certainly more challenging against the backdrop of the current climate, and I'm especially proud to be sharing our anticipated annual industry outlook again this year.”