Why visit ACE ’25?
In 2008, there were a lot of clients and not enough charter aircraft. In 2014 there are a lot of aircraft, and a certain amount of charter clients. Every time you have a client take delivery of his own aircraft, it does reduce the charter market at large.
There has been an upsurge in the use of super midsize, because the same client who would take a heavy jet for long range flights might choose a super midsize now. I think there is also a change from 2008, because people were then looking for capacity. People's choices are a lot more sophisticated now. They will say that they want a particular brand of aircraft, just like they do with cars, with everybody having different sensibilities.
I think there is more finance available, which means that there will be more aircraft sold. The values of aircraft are now fairly stable. We noticed that there has been a change in the market. People who wanted smaller aircraft have now bought bigger aircraft, because nowadays you can get a Challenger 604 or Falcon 2000 for a very reasonable price, even if it is a 1998 or 1999 aircraft. If you look at the operating cost difference, then maybe it would make sense to put the aircraft on an AOC and charter it out. It always depends on the flight patterns of the main passenger. You have to see whether it is more effective to keep it private, or put it out for charter.
In December, Dassault Aviation launched the Falcon 8X, producing an aircraft with an additional hour of range, a longer cabin and good short field performance. I believe in the long term we will need to be able to operate from short airfields, even when flying far away. People will fly not so much from the main airports but will use small airports to tackle congestion and parking problems. Having properties and businesses all around the world, they will need short runway performance more and more. It is a combination of short field and long range capabilities, which seems like a contradiction but there is a trend here that is very strong, for security reasons as well.
I am not sure about the potential market for an 8,000 nm jet. How many times are people going to be travelling 8,000 miles? Most owners of aircraft fly between 150 and 450 hours a year. For me, 6,000 nm range is the new 4,000 nm. In the 1990s 4,000 was fine, but I think once 6,000 was reached, this was a benchmark.
If I imagine the future of business aviation aircraft, it will be greener, with more fuel efficient engines, and lighter aircraft with ever more use of composites. If you look five years ahead, I'm not sure that there will be so many new aircraft, because of the development costs, but there will certainly be a lot of technological improvements ahead.
Will the market improve for 2015? I would be cautiously optimistic and passionate about business aviation, as we all are.